This is definitely, without any doubt, one for the books — I find it close to impossible to describe the first filling and completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) — the closest word I can come up with is monumental.
On July 22, 2020 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the first-year filling target, indicating that enough water had accumulated to enable Ethiopia to test the dam’s first two turbines — an important milestone on the way toward actually producing energy.
It is now a few weeks since the announcement and I am still smiling at the news! It is difficult, in fact near impossible to mark the significance of this event. How does one summarise over eight decades of struggle in a few words? I will not even attempt to do so, at the same time, I cannot not share thoughts on this remarkable event.
A lot is currently being said about this event online, depending on which camp you sit, news and commentary reads as either celebratory (Ethiopians and her supporters) on the one hand, or one of reproach, dismay and dread (Egyptians and her supporters) on the other, with neutral reporting in the middle. I happily (and unashamedly) sit in the earlier camp. There are good reasons for this sentiment and it is not based on my origins as an Ethiopian.
As I walked the streets of my neighbourhood, a smile plastered across my face, phone in hand, scrolling feeds for news, I could not help but notice how the sense of triumph felt by Ethiopians was not even lightly resonating in the one-would-assume-to-be more neutral camps (ex: @BBCAfrica, @Aljazeera) – this is another topic for another blog.
For this reason, I felt compelled to write this blog post. Without exhausting you, I’ll briefly share why I believe the GERD is such great news for Ethiopia and more great news than not for all parties concerned.
Benefits of GERD for Ethiopia
As in my previous blog, the GERD will not only just guarantee water and electricity for its growing population; it would allow Ethiopia to sell electricity to neighbouring countries. In doing so, Ethiopia will be able to build enough foreign reserves to pay off its debts. The benefits of this on a socio-economic scale for generations to come are arguably exponential.
Benefits of GERD for Sudan & Egypt
According to sciencedirect, the benefits of GERD is not limited to power supply to Ethiopia, it can benefit Sudan and Egypt by removing up to 86% of silt and sedimentation. It will also regulate the steady water flow throughout the year and it will avoid un-expected flooding to downstream countries.
Benefits of GERD for Eastern Africa
It is no doubt that the GERD, as the largest dam in Africa today, will go a long way to further accelerate, contribute and strengthen the pace of development and collective progress being made across East African countries (or EAC). Starting from the outstanding achievements of Rwanda to Tanzania’s impressive political and economic developments, East African countries include three of the top five fastest growing economies in Africa: Rwanda with 8.7 per cent growth, Ethiopia with 7.4 percent, and Tanzania 6.8 percent growth (Source: School Africa).
For more benefits, check out this video
Egypt’s concerns
Of course, it would be naive of me to assume that these benefits would resonate with everyone. Egypt has concerns, which include possible shortage of water, which becomes critical in the event of a drought.
Concern is putting it lightly. After months of being active on Twitter, I’m shocked to have seen the many disinformation tweets coming from Egyptians active on the channel. With such measures, and based on everything I’ve seen so far, it is no exaggeration to believe that their concern is actually more of fear and perhaps even panic. Unfortunately, with such emotions, rationality is the first thing that flies out the window so weighing the potential and value of the benefits versus the disadvantages is too much of an ask.
No amount of proof, planning, reassurance from Ethiopia can quench such fears. A disarray of responses, ranging from the emotional to making unreasonable demands, has met every effort by Ethiopia.
Of course, it is understandable that being dependent on Ethiopia for its waters creates unease for Egypt, which amplifies its fears. Putting that aside, the real challenge, in my opinion, is to identify clear justification of their fears on a more pragmatic level.
The sheer scale of GERD, its complexity, history, and the amount of literature and studies available along with the qualifications needed to understand it all makes it very difficult to find that justification. Even more concerning, at times seemingly well executed studies deliver conflicting results. In one such example, the reduction of silt and sediment that will be brought about by GERD is identified as positive in one study and only as negative in another.
Postive assessmentabout silt & sediment
‘Severe soil erosion is experienced in the watersheds of the Blue Nile and Atbara rivers originating from the Ethiopian highlands. The resulted sediment causes sedimentation of dams’ reservoirs, power houses, inlet channels of pumping stations and irrigation canals. Storage capacities of reservoirs are reduced to 50% due to sedimentation. The high silt content during the flood periods causes frequent blockage of turbine inlets of the major hydropower station at Roseries dam resulting in severe power shortages. Inlet channels of the major irrigation schemes in the Northern region are now severely affected by sedimentation and morphological changes of the river Nile. Inlets are clogged with sediment and are now inoperative. Others will follow affected by the steady propagation of the problem. In irrigation canals, sedimentation affects directly the operation and maintenance of the irrigation systems, draining annual maintenance budgets and causing severe water shortages and crop damage. Bank erosion in Northern Sudan is causing tremendous problems to local people, reducing their already small cultivable lands. In fact it is not only a problem of losing lands, crops and power by erosion and sedimentation, but it has significant social, economic and environmental implications as well.’(Source)
Negative assessmentabout sint & sediment
‘In Sudan, people use the abundance of sediment in the brick industry. With a reduction of sediment release, many Sudanese people would lose their jobs.’ (Source: Mulat, Asegdew G., et al. “Impact and Benefit Study of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) During Impounding and Operation Phases on Downstream Structures in the Eastern Nile.” Nile River Basin, 2014, pp)
Take it with a grain of salt & do the math
The point to take away here is that it is easy to get lost in the details. What’s more, without the expertise and the time to gather and analyse relevant information, it is close to fully impossible to be conclusive about GERD.
That said, one does not need to have a degree in Water Engineering & Management to do the math. Should all things run smoothly, (an outcome that has a higher chance of being reached with cross-country cooperation) then all countries benefit admittedly, Ethiopia more than others do.
Given the 80+ years Ethiopia has waited, I daresay the benefit is justified as much as it is justified to call for Egypt and Sudan to invest in watershed development projects rather than scrutinize and obstruct progress being made with the GERD in Ethiopia, which is unrealistic. Ethiopia is, afterall, the country that supplies 85% of the Nile waters so it is within their interests and I daresay a better use of their time. Case it point, Egyptian billionaire businessman Naguib Sawiris states he would rather go to war with Ethiopia if needed. Surely investing in/supporting Ethiopia’s GERD is a smarter, quicker and a quicker way to securing a favourable outcome rather than all out war.
It is also justified to call on Egypt to minimise water wastage and be more effective with its water usage, something they have not had to do for over 80 years now.
What are your thoughts on this topic? Share it in the comment below.