How Foreign Aid Affect Developing Countries: The Case of Ethiopia

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AVRASYA

ETÜDLERİ

2018-1

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Türk İşbirliği ve Koordinasyon Ajansı Başkanlığı

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Ankara Üniversitesi

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İçindekiler / Contents

Ali Mohamed FARAH – Murat ÖNDER – Emrah AYHAN

How Foreign Aid Affect Developing Countries: The Case of Ethiopia / 7-38

Dış Yardımların Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Etkisi: Etiyopya Örneği

Resul YALÇIN

The Cyprus Dispute: What is the Cause for an Unachievable Reunication? / 39-61

Kıbrıs Anlaşmazlığı: Ada’nın Yeniden Birleştirilmesi Neden Mümkün Değildir?

Murat BAYAR

Dış Yardımda Amerikan, Çin ve Türk Yaklaşımları / 63-86

American, Chinese and Turkish Approaches to Foreign Aid

Duygu DERSAN ORHAN

Rusya Dış Politikasında Orta Doğu: Arap Baharı Sonrası Tehditler ve Fırsatlar / 87-116

Middle East in Russian Foreign Policy: Threats and Opportunities After the Arab Spring

Arzu DURDULAR

Çin’in Ortaklık İlişkileri ve Türkiye-Çin Stratejik İşbirliği / 117-144

China’s Partnership Relations and Turkey-China Strategic Cooperation

Mehmet KAHRAMAN

Dede Korkut Anlatısı / 145-176

Dede Korkut Narrative

Fatma SEL TURHAN

Silahdar Abdullah Paşa’nın Bosna Valiliği (1780-1785) ve Muhallefȃtı / 177-204

Silahdar Abdullah Paşa’s Governorship of Bosnia (1780-1785) and his Inheritance

Kitap Tanıtımı

Nurçin YILDIZ DUMAN

Taşkent Defteri / 205-210

How Foreign Aid Affect Developing Countries:

The Case of Ethiopia

Ali Mohamed FARAH1

Murat ÖNDER2

Emrah AYHAN3

Abstract

Foreign aid has been an essential tool for the socio-economic development of

developing countries since 1960s. It is described by OECD as the nancial,

technical assistance and commodity ow to the countries that are in the list of

DAC (Development Assistance Committee). US’s Marshall Plan is a well-known

development assistance program, which was established between 1948 and 1951

under the European Recovery Program to support Europe in economic crisis after a

war became successful in reducing poverty while increasing economic growth. By

taking the Marshall plan as a model, developed countries have been supporting the

developing countries since then. Recently, the Millennium Development Goals was

also launched in New York in 2000 to nance economic growth of poor countries.

New actors from other parts of the world took their places in providing development

assistance. Despite receiving more than 600 billion USD in the context of foreign

aid, large part of Africa has still remained underdeveloped and in an extreme poverty.

In this paper, we study the impacts of foreign aid to socio-economic development to

Ethiopia. After reviewing the development and foreign aid literature from primary

and secondary sources, this study beneted from data gathered from World Bank

Database, Transparency International and Freedom House, and then time series data

were evaluated by regression analysis. Our ndings indicate that foreign aids do

not have a major inuence on GDP growth; but it has a considerable inuence on

FDI (foreign direct investment) and unemployment rate in Ethiopia. However, it is

observed that foreign aid has negatively correlated with democracy and corruption

levels in the country. Although, the amount of foreign aid has been continuously

increasing, Ethiopia has remained one of the most corrupt and authoritarian African

countries according to related indices. Consequently, our study concludes that foreign

aid should be redesigned to encourage and reward receiving countries to advance

their democracy and eliminate corruption within the context of recent philosophy and

principle of collaborative governance for long term development.

Keywords: foreign aid, development, GDP, unemployment, corruption, democracy,

governance.

1 Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University Social Sciences Institute, doctoral student, [email protected]

Prof. Dr., Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University Faculty of Political Sciences, [email protected]

3 Ankara

Yıldırım Beyazıt University

Faculty of Political Sciences, Research assistant,

[email protected]

AVRASYA ETÜDLERİ 53/2018-1 (7-39)

Received: 18.10.2017 Accepted: 02.02.2018

T.C. Türk İşbirliği ve Koordinasyon Ajansı Başkanlığı

Türk Cooperation and Coordination Agency

Dış Yardımların Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Etkisi:

Etiyopya Örneği

Öz

Dış yardım, 1960’lardan bu yana gelişmekte olan ülkelerin sosyo-ekonomik olarak

kalkınmaları için vazgeçilmez bir araç olmuştur. OECD, bu yardımları DAC (The

Development Assistance Committee/Kalkınma Yardımı Komitesi) listesinde yer

alan ülkelere nansal, teknik yardım ve emtia akışı olarak tanımlanmaktadır.

1948-1951 yılları arasında Avrupa İyileştirme Programı kapsamında uygulamaya

koyulan ABD’nin Marshall Planı, Avrupa’daki ekonomik büyümeyi arttırırken,

yoksulluğun azaltılmasını sağlamıştır. Marshall planını örnek alan gelişmiş

ülkeler, 1960’lardan bu yana gelişmekte olan ülkeleri desteklemektedirler. Buna

ek olarak, yoksul ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesini nanse etmek amacıyla 2000

yılında New York’ta Milenyum Kalkınma Hedeeri ortaya çıkmıştır. Afrika’ya

yapılan dış yardım miktarının 600 milyar doları aşmasına rağmen, bu kıtadaki

ülkelerin büyük kısmı az gelişmiş ve aşırı derecede fakir kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada,

dış yardımın Etiyopya’ya olan sosyo-ekonomik etkileri incelenmiştir. Kalkınma

yardımları ve dış yardım türlerine dair literatür incelendikten sonra, Dünya

Bankası Veri tabanı, Şeffaık Örgütü ve Özgürlük Evi gibi resmî kurumlardan

edinilen veriler incelenmiş ve daha sonra bu zaman serisi verileri regresyon

analizi yöntemi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırma bulgularımız, dış yardımın

GSYİH üzerinde önemli bir etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir; ancak dış yardım

Etiyopya’da doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (FDI) ve işsizlik oranı üzerinde önemli

bir etkiye sahiptir. Ancak, ülkedeki demokrasi ve yolsuzluk seviyeleri ile dış

yardımlar arasında anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğu görülmektedir. Her ne kadar

dış yardımların miktarı sürekli artsa da ilgili endekslerde Etiyopya en yozlaşmış ve

en otoriter Afrika ülkelerinden birisi olarak kalmaya devam etmiştir. Bu nedenle,

dış yardımın alıcı ülkelerin demokrasilerini geliştirmelerini ve yolsuzluğu ortadan

kaldırmalarını teşvik eden bir ödül olarak görülmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar kelimeler: dış yardım, gelişme, GSYİH, işsizlik, yolsuzluk, demokrasi,

yönetişim.

1. Introduction

After the end of WWII, development assistance also called as ‘foreign

aid’ began to be considered as an essential tool for growth and reduction of

poverty. Since then development assistance has been used as a political tool

between liberal and socialist blocs during Cold War in order to get control

of the rest of the world.4 For instance, USA has put an aid program, the

European Recovery Program for the reconstruction of Western Europe.

This aid program, widely known as “The Marshall Plan” in which the

US transferred 2-3% of its GDP to Europe, was successful and played a

signicant role in the reconstruction of the region.5 The struggle between the

two blocs ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Parallel to

this development, socialist ideas also collapsed, and the ideas of liberalism

and globalization have become dominant throughout the world.6

As a result of paradigm shift in development policy approach after

1980s7, developed countries has taken a global responsibility since 1960s

and they have been advocating foreign aid to reduce poverty and achieve

development and economic growth. This global task has been reinforced

with the Millennium Submit of 2000 in New York where a project called

the Millennium Development Goals was launched and the international

community committed itself for more contribution to the development

of the developing countries. With the implementation of this program,

extreme poverty was to be reduced by half until 2015. The other goals of

the program were to achieve universal primary education, eliminate gender

disparity in education, reduce infant and maternal mortality by two-thirds,

ensure environmental sustainability, and develop a global partnership for

development.8

The African continent has been largely receiving foreign aid since

1960s, and more than $600 billion is transferred to the continent as foreign

aid. Despite the continuing and increasing amount of aid for more than half

a century, little has been achieved in terms of development in the continent.

Besides, the continent’s aid dependency continues, and it is not expected to

4 Murat Önder ve Şevki Mert BARIŞ, “Kalkınma İşbirliğinde Etkinlik Arayışları ve Yeni Aktörler”, ICPESS

(International Congress on Politic, Economic and Social Studies), Bosnia, No. 2, 2017.

5 Finn Tarp, “Aid and development”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, No. 13, 2006, p. 20.

6 Emrah Ayhan, Muhsin Tan and Mahmut Baydaş, “Neo-Liberal Globalization and Turkey”, The Journal of

MacroTrends in Social Science, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2016, pp. 62-76.

7 Emrah Ayhan and Murat Önder, “Turkish Regional Development Policy Framework: Is There A Paradigm

Shift?”, 3. International Regional Development Conference Proceedings Book, 15-16 October 2015,

pp. 843-858.

8 UNDP – United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report, 2005, p. 5; http://hdr.undp.

org/sites/default/les/reports/266/hdr05_complete.pdf; access: 12.09.2017.

be reduced in the near future. Because of this, the effectiveness of foreign aid

has been highly debated for the past two decades.

For Africa, The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) are far from

being attained. According to the United Nations Development Program

(UNDP) Human Development Report of 2014, 34 countries out of the 48

Least Developed Countries (LDC) in the world are in Africa.9 In addition,

48% of people living in Sub-Sahara Africa are in extreme poverty (live in

less than 1,25$ a day).10 Therefore, some scholars describe foreign aid as a

“failure” and contend that donor countries should rethink of this “failed aid”.

Dambisa Moyo argues that the aid extended to Africa is doing more harm

than good.11 In contrast, Sachs contends that “cutting the aid to Africa would

cause the death of more than 6 million Africans a year for preventable and

treatable causes, including undernourishment, lack of safe drinking water,

malaria, tuberculosis and AIDS”.12 As Addison et al. claims that the aid has

contributed to growth in Sub-Sahara Africa and, thereby, it reduces poverty.13

One of the reasons that some scholars are critical of the efciency

of foreign aid is that most of the 34 African countries in the LDC have

authoritarian governments and high corruption rate. This raises a concern

whether foreign aid encourages corrupt and authoritarian rulers, enriches

elites in poor countries, and extends the life of bad governments in power.

This is consistent with the ndings of Peter Boone stating that “despite the

tremendous amount ($600 billion) of aid supplied to Africa, the continent has

still remained one of the poorest relative to other continents”.14 Therefore,

donor countries tend to promote responsible policies because aid works only

in countries with good policy.15 Moreover, foreign aid promotes growth in

countries with stable political environment.16 Because of this mixed outcome,

9 UNDP – United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report, 2014; http://hdr.undp.org/

en/content/human-development-report-2014; access: 12.09.2017.

10 Details about “Top 10 Poverty in Africa Facts” can be found at: https://borgenproject.org/10-quick-facts-

about-poverty-in-africa/

11 Dambisa Moyo, “Why Foreign Aid Is Hurting Africa”, The Wall Street Journal, 2009, pp. 1–5.

12 Jeffrey D. Sachs, The end of Poverty: Economic Possibilities of Our Time, The Penguin Press, New York,

2005.

13 Tony Addison, Georg Mavrotas and Marc Mcgillivray, “AID TO AFRICA : AN UNFINISHED

AGENDA”, Journal of International Development, No. 1001, 2005, pp. 989–1001. http://doi.

org/10.1002/jid.1255

14 Peter Boone, “Politics and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid”, European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No.

2, 1996, pp. 289–329. http://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00127-1

15 Craig Burnside and David Dollar, “Aid, Policies and Growth”, The World Bank, June 1997; Jakob

Svensson, “Foreign Aid and Rent-seeking”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 52, No. 2, 2000,

pp. 437–461. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(99)00014-8

16 Carl Johan Dalgaard, Henrik Hansen and Finn Tarp, “On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth”,

the impact and outcome of foreign aid has been the central discussion of

scholars and needs more elaboration.

For instance, Ethiopia has been one of the largest recipients of foreign

aid in Sub-Sahara Africa. It has received more than $42 billion for the

past two decades. Yet again, the country is found in the list of the Least

Developed Countries ranking, 173rd out of 187 countries in the Human

Development Index. In addition to this, it ranks 110th out of 175 countries on

the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International. Likewise, its

democracy index is not appreciated, because it is 6/7 according to Freedom

House Report.17 Yet again, it has been one of the top aid receiving countries

in Africa. Therefore, the contribution of foreign aid to this country’s

development is worth to be evaluated in detail.

In this study, a secondary data is used from World Bank Database,

Transparency International and Freedom House. Consistent with the ndings

of the literature, it is expected that foreign aid or Ofcial Development

Assistance increase Foreign Direct Investment and democracy level. On the

other hand, foreign aid is expected to have a negative effect on corruption.

Additionally, in the study, terms like “Foreign Aid” and “Ofcial Direct

Assistance” are interchangeably used. Time series data were used to test our

hypotheses with regression analysis. In order to evaluate how foreign aid

inuences the socio-economic development of Ethiopia, we evaluated the

inuence of foreign aid on foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP growth,

unemployment rate, corruption, and democracy. Moreover, correlation of

foreign aid with the population growth is also evaluated in the study.

As a result, we argue that foreign aid can boost economy, enhance growth

by creating a space for a foreign direct investment, reduce corruption, and

promote democracy. Moreover, because of the increasing investment, the

unemployment rates are expected to decrease. On the other hand, foreign aid

has no strong relation with the GDP growth in Ethiopia. There is a negative

correlation between foreign aid and corruption as well as foreign aid and

democracy in Ethiopia. Foreign aid is not associated with good democracy

and governance. Despite the increasing foreign aid, Ethiopia has remained one

of the most corrupt and authoritarian countries in Africa. Foreign aid should

reward countries with good democracy and consider corruption performance.

Economic Journal, Vol. 114, No. 496, 2004, pp. 191-216. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-

0297.2004.00219.x; Muhammed N. Islam, “Regime Changes, Economic Policies and the Effect of

Aid on Growth”, The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 41, No. 8, 2005, pp. 467–1492. http://doi.

org/10.1080/00220380500187828

17 Freedom House Report on Ethiopia, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2014/ethiopia;

access: 08.09.2017.

After reviewing the previous research, this study assesses the inuence

of foreign aid on the socio-economic development of Ethiopia in ve

main titles; (1) the impact of foreign aid on development, (2) the negative

impact of foreign aid, (3) the impact of foreign aid on corruption and (4) the

contribution of foreign aid to democracy, and (5) the statistical analysis of

foreign aid inuence on Ethiopia.

2. Foreign Aid, Development and Foreign Investment

The Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), preferring to use Ofcial

Development Assistance (ODA) instead of foreign aid, has dened the ODA

as the nancial, technical assistance and commodity ow to the countries that

are in the list of DAC. This assistance is the sum of grants and loans to aid

recipient countries found in the list of the DAC.18 Steven Radelet states that

the aim of foreign aid is to stimulate economic growth, support consumption

of food and other commodities, strengthen education, health, environment or

political system and help stabilize an economy following economic shocks.19

Moreover, foreign aid has positive impact on the growth20 and development

of developing countries, and attracts foreign investment.21

Thus, foreign aid can boost economy and bring growth by preparing

space for foreign direct investment. It is believed by the International

Monetary Fund and World Bank that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

can play a vital role in the ght against poverty in developing countries.

For instance, the World Bank has established the Multilateral Investment

Guaranty Agency (MIGA) in 1988 “to enhance the ow to developing

countries of capital and technology for productive purposes under conditions

consistent with their developmental needs, policies and objectives, on the

basis of fair and stable standards to the treatment of foreign investment”.22

Hence, MIGA encourages and facilitates FDI so that it could ease the

unemployment of developing countries. For Elizabeth Asseidu and Yi Jin,

18 OECD, “Ofcial development assistance – denition and coverage”, Retrieved May 19, 2015, from

http://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/ofcialdevelopmentassistancedenitionandcoverage.htm; access:

12.09.2017.

19 Steven Radelet, “A Premier on Foreign Aid”, Centre for Global Development, Working Paper 92, July

2006, p. 7.

20 Henrik Hansen and Finn Tarp, “Policy Arena, Aid Effectiveness Disputed”, Journal of International

Development Vol. 12, 2000, p. 393.

21 Carl-Johan Dalgaard, Henrik Hansen and Finn Tarp, “On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth”, The

Economic Journal, Vol. 114, 2004, p. 211.

22 World Bank 1988, “Convention: Establishing the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency”. http://

documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/755331468319524941/Multilateral-Investment-Guarantee-

Agency-MIGA-Council-of-Governors-resolution-no-32-membership-of-Turkmenistan; access:

13.09.2017.

foreign aid is a source of capital because it creates jobs, boosts wages and

promotes economic growth.23 Accordingly, aid recipient countries that tend

to reduce poverty and unemployment, are supposed to make the necessary

arrangements for FDI.

For the proponents of foreign aid, it can relieve credit shortages faced by

the governments. This will allow them to invest in the development of public

infrastructure and human capital, which will increase growth.24 Recipient

countries use resources obtained from foreign aid to cover the “saving gap”

and “the foreign exchange gap”.25 In addition, if the effect of aid on domestic

savings is positive, then it can be argued that aid will spur growth. Otherwise,

aid will probably be detrimental to the economic growth of developing

countries.26 As a result, for aid recipient countries, in this model, aid takes

the place of savings and these savings lead to investment, which eventually

results in growth.

Furthermore, in order to have an effective foreign aid, recipient country’s

implementation of good policy is necessary.27 Many scholars argue that

foreign aid works better in countries with good policies. This means that for

countries with good scal, monetary, institutional quality and trade policies,

foreign aid promotes growth and development. Similarly, the Canadian

International Development Agency suggests that good policies make foreign

aid effective.28

One of the components of good policies is to have an open trade

policy. Trade plays a vital role in bilateral aid since donor countries are

more interested in this type of aid. Thus, open economy also plays a major

23 Elizabeth Asiedu and Yi Jin, “Does Foreign Aid Mitigate the Adverse Effect of Expropriation Risk

on Foreign Direct Investment”, Working Paper, No. 785, 2008, pp. 1-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/

ssrn.1352389

24 H. Hansen and Finn Tarp, “Aid and growth regressions”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, No. 13, 2006,

pp. 9–61.

25 Ömer Eroglu and Ali Yavuz, “The Role of Foreign Aid in Economic Development of Developing

Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, No. 18, 2009, pp. 144–158.

26 S. B. Moreira, “Evaluating the Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study”,

Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2005, pp. 25–49.

27 Tony Addison, Georga Mavrotas and Marc Mcgillivray, “AID TO AFRICA: AN UNFINISHED

AGENDA”, Journal of International Development, No. 1001, 2005, pp. 989–1001. http://doi.

org/10.1002/jid.1255; Craig Burnside and David Dollar, “Aid, Policies and Growth”, The World Bank,

June 1997; Paul Collier and David Dollar, “Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform

and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals”, EconPapers, Vol. 29, No. 11, 2001,

pp. 1878-1802.

28 CIDA (Canada Internatıonal Development Agency), “Canada Is Making A Difference in the Devel-

oping World”, 2002. https://lop.parl.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/prb0907-e.htm; access:

13.09.2017.

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CHAPTER: ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

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Kadın Araştırması

Project

Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Gençlik ve Spor Bakanligi STK Arastirmasi (Turkish Ministry of Youth and Sports NGO Capacity Research)

Proje, Turkiye’de genclere yonelik faaliyet ve programlar yürüten sivil toplum kuruluslari (STK)’nin kapasitelerine yonelik kapsamli bir veri toplama, analiz ve arastirma projesidir. Projenin Ordu, … [more]

Article

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Asymmetric influence of corruption distance on FDI

July 2018 · Journal of Financial Crime

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to measure the influence of Corruption Distance (CD) on foreign direct investment (FDI) with the characteristics of the value function from Prospect such as loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. Design/methodology/approach Data are derived from Transparency International and OECD and tested on the countries China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, … [Show full abstract]

Conference Paper

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NGOs and Local Development: The Case of Tunceli / STK’lar ve Yerel Kalkinma: Tunceli Örneği

September 2017

The sources of civil society in Turkey can be found in pre-Ottoman period. However, development of civil society in the modern sense has increased parallel to democratization movements and arguments about minimizing the role of state on economy in the world since 1980s. Since then, the issue of civil society has become essential in both political and developmental studies. Especially, … [Show full abstract]

Conference Paper

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Financial Vulnerability of NGOs in Turkey: The Case of Youth NGOs in South-East Anatolia and Mediter…

May 2018

In many countries, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) have increasingly been playing complementary and alternative role where government and market fail to provide social services for the needy. NGOs use various financial resources (e.g., membership fees, donations, governmental subsidies, grants, project income and other fund-raising activities) to pursue their social missions and … [Show full abstract]

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YURTTAŞ GAZETECİLİĞİNİN ANA AKIM MEDYAYA ETKİSİ: WHATSAPP İHBAR HATLARI ÖRNEĞİ /THE IMPACT OF CITIZE…

July 2017 · Erciyes İletişim Dergisi

Yurttaş gazeteciliği, profesyonel mesleği gazetecilik olmayan bireylerin haber üretme ve yayma süreçlerinde aktif rol almasını ifade etmektedir. Ana akım medyanın sahip olduğu yapısal birtakım sorunlarla birlikte iletişim teknolojilerinde yaşanan dönüşümler neticesinde yaygınlık kazanan yurttaş gazeteciliği günümüzde farklı şekillerde ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Bunlardan bir tanesi de merkez … [Show full abstract]

Article

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Impact of corruption on the effectiveness of official development assistance in CEMAC Zone

June 2018 · Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah

The purpose of this paper is to check the impact of corruption on the link between development assistance and economic growth in the countries of the CEMAC Zone. Thus, from our dynamic panel data model relating economic growth and the explanatory variables including official development assistance and the index of corruption, we use the Generalized Moments Method (GMM) to estimate our model; our … [Show full abstract]