The International Crisis Group and the manufacturing and communicating of crises

Greg Simons

Abstract

The International Crisis Group (icg) has the motto ‘working to prevent conflict worldwide’. As an organisation the icg occupies a very specific niche role, which is related to crises of a political nature, specifically armed conflict. While the icg employs a negative understanding of crisis, the academic definition of what a crisis may constitute is broader, as it can actually represent an opportunity for some actors. This article, written from a communication studies perspective, seeks to address how crises are manufactured in icg texts. It argues that the way in which crisis events are viewed and reacted to depends on the level of information and ‘knowledge’ that is produced and circulating about them. The article tackles the issue of the strategic level of the icg in terms of its means and mechanisms of attempting to project influence. It explores the different ploys and strategies used to influence policy makers, especially its communication strategy, the different values and ethics that are highlighted, and the ‘causes’ that are promoted.ResearchGate Logo

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The International Crisis Group and the

manufacturing and communicating of

crises

Greg Simonsa

a Uppsala Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Uppsala

University and National Centre for Crisis Management Research

and Training, Swedish National Defence College, Stockholm,

Sweden

Published online: 16 Jul 2014.

To cite this article: Greg Simons (2014) The International Crisis Group and the

manufacturing and communicating of crises, Third World Quarterly, 35:4, 581-597, DOI:

10.1080/01436597.2014.924062

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2014.924062

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The International Crisis Group and

the manufacturing and

communicating of crises

Greg Simons*

Uppsala Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Uppsala University and National Centre for Crisis

Management Research and Training, Swedish National Defence College, Stockholm, Sweden

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has the motto ‘working to pre-

vent conflict worldwide’. As an organisation the ICG occupies a very

specific niche role, which is related to crises of a political nature,

specifically armed conflict. While the ICG employs a negative under-

standing of crisis, the academic definition of what a crisis may consti-

tute is broader, as it can actually represent an opportunity for some

actors. This article, written from a communication studies perspective,

seeks to address how crises are manufactured in ICG texts. It argues

that the way in which crisis events are viewed and reacted to depends

on the level of information and ‘knowledge’that is produced and cir-

culating about them. The article tackles the issue of the strategic level

of the ICG in terms of its means and mechanisms of attempting to pro-

ject influence. It explores the different ploys and strategies used to

influence policy makers, especially its communication strategy, the

different values and ethics that are highlighted, and the ‘causes’that

are promoted.

Keywords: International Crisis Group (ICG); influence; communication

strategy; event management; crisis; persuasion

Introduction

Knowledge involves the ability to make sense of and instrumentalise informa-

tion and data that exist in our environment, to turn that raw intangible material

into something that is tangible, meaningful and real. The ability to achieve this

successfully depends on the availability of and access to information of good

quantity and quality. This is especially critical during periods of crisis and/or

war, when the tempo and stakes involved are simultaneously at elevated levels.

Some organisations exist specifically to fulfil the niche role of providing infor-

mation and data to policy makers concerning crisis situations –in a sense, they

are crisis knowledge brokers or gatekeepers.

*Email: [email protected]

© 2014 Southseries Inc., www.thirdworldquarterly.com

Third World Quarterly, 2014

Vol. 35, No. 4, 581–597, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2014.924062

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A policy maker will react to the information environment on a particular

event according to the manner in which it is conveyed. International crises and

especially war carry with them, on the one hand, a certain element of political

risk, which consists in the potential loss of military personnel, together with the

possibility of taking the blame politically, which can result in a government

being voted out of office. On the other hand, there is an element of opportunity

as well –conversely, if things go ‘right’it can lead to the accumulation of polit-

ical capital. Therefore, the event in question needs to be prominent in the infor-

mation sphere and there needs to be a sense of legitimacy associated with it to

enhance the likeliness of external intervention. This is an extremely politically

sensitive topic, as observable especially in the wake of the armed conflicts and

interventions in Iraq (2003), Libya and Syria.

1

Influencers such as NGOs,

think-tanks and other forms of organised lobbying have emerged that use com-

munication and knowledge production in order to engineer consent to socially

constructed politics and values with regard to such crises.

2

This article takes a communication studies approach to addressing the subject

matter. It analyses the International Crisis Group (ICG), as one prominent exam-

ple of such influencers, and its ability to shape political knowledge about and

perceptions of different international crises. The ways and means by which the

ICG tends to wield persuasion and influences perception through its communica-

tions on a number of different crises it has championed will be the core concern

of the article, which will not look at individual cases but rather at the means

and ability across the spectrum of ICG reporting.

The article begins by tackling the issue of defining what a crisis is and how

war and conflict fit into this frame. These questions will be addressed from the

stance of communicational considerations and aspects that are embedded in cri-

sis and war, exploring key attributes of ‘successful’communication from the

point of view of achieving organisational objectives and goals. The next section

lays the theoretical and conceptual foundations for defining influence and policy

via the use of persuasion. The focus will be on the role of NGOs and especially

think-tanks. The final section looks at concrete cases where the ICG has taken a

stance on individual crisis situations and suggested a particular course of action.

A sample of the different kinds of informational products produced and dissemi-

nated by the ICG will be evaluated. The analysis will be guided by the question

of how the ICG tries to wield influence and persuade policy makers and public

through its informational products and the respective communication strategy.

The ultimate task of this article is to identify whether there is a ‘recipe’used by

the ICG in its attempts to shape public perception and political reaction to armed

conflict.

Crisis, armed conflict and communication

The word ‘crisis’should be reserved only for serious events or threats. A crisis

involves ‘a disturbance in normal conditions and is an exceptional, unexpected

or abrupt change in the state of security that poses a threat to the functioning of

society and to the safety of the population’.

3

Although crises cannot be pre-

dicted, they can be anticipated.

4

Beyond this general definition, crises vary

widely in terms of their character and appearance:

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Crises may be international, national, regional or local, and they may have very

different effects. The following are examples of situations requiring intensified

communications: a major accident; a sudden international political or military cri-

sis; an environmental accident; a natural disaster or catastrophe; a disturbance

involving information systems or power distribution; wide-scale immigration; an

epidemic; terrorism; a threat caused by organised crime; and a publicity crisis

affecting the organisation or its top management.

5

As broad and diverse as crises can be, all examples listed above share some

common characteristics. There are three different elements of perception that

need to be simultaneously managed by decision makers in order to declare a

phenomenon a crisis: first, the threat to basic values; second, a sense of urgency;

and third, the issue of uncertainty.

6

The threat to values refers to what is being

threatened –way of life, human life, economic well-being, property, and so

forth. Values are important and need to be expressed; however, not all values

are equal. Sanctity of human life is considered paramount, mid-range values

include environmental concerns, and lower-end values relate to issues such as

financial cost.

7

An essential aspect to note at this stage is that ‘the use of infor-

mation is embedded in social norms that make it highly symbolic’.

8

Social

norms provide the means for establishing an emotional connection between the

communication and the target audience. However, this is only valid so long as

those norms resonate with the audience.

Perception or image is of crucial importance in today’s highly mediated

world, where image can be of as much importance as substance.

9

Mass media

play a critical role in the process of shaping the perception of a crisis, as is

noted by the Swedish Emergency Management Agency’s handbook: ‘The image

that various interested parties have of a crisis is created, to a very large extent,

by the media’.

10

The importance of the media had already been proposed by

Joseph Scanlon some 20 years earlier in 1975: ‘Every crisis is also a crisis of

information…Failure to control this crisis of information results in failure to

control the crisis, including its directly operational aspects’.

11

In this regard

knowledge can be considered as both a tangible and an intangible resource.

12

Good media management can create opportunities for some actors, which entails

a need to understand how media and journalists function.

Journalists and media set out to cover and report on crisis events in a rela-

tively predictable form. The former director of communications at the British

Home Office, Michael Granatt, has devised the progression of media response

to a crisis in the following way:

Mayhem –occurs in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. The media rush

to the scene of the crisis to find out what, where, when, why, how, and to

get images.

Mastermind –relevant background information and history is sought.

Manhunt –the media seek to apportion error, fault, blame and a scape-

goat.

Epilogue –occurs in the long-term aftermath and follow-up. Inquiries, tri-

als and memorial services are covered; reconstructions of the event and

documentaries are produced.

13

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Should an organisation seek to influence the perception and hence opinion of an

event, then the best stages to do this are during the phases of mayhem or

mastermind. Shaping the information environment at this early stage allows for

the possibility to more easily dictate the narration and characterisation of the

event. Following from this, a course of suggested action may be proposed more

easily, which would seem to alleviate the constructed problem event. A crisis is

interesting news and will therefore attract the attention of the media. Therefore

media have the potential to alleviate or exacerbate the situation, to act as judge

and jury, and they have a tendency to exaggerate and sensationalise.

14

This must

be carefully and professionally managed through effective crisis communication.

The following discussion relates to the communicational aspects to be con-

sidered within a democratic political system. Within the area of crisis communi-

cation there are two broad categories: managing information and managing

meaning. The management of information involves the ‘collection, analysis and

dissemination of information during a crisis’. The management of meaning per-

tains to ‘the messages used in attempts to shape how people perceive the crisis

or the organisation in crisis’.

15

In order to initiate the process of turning infor-

mation into knowledge, there is much more involved than simply getting the

needed information to the required destination.

16

As mentioned above, war can

be categorised as a kind of crisis. It bears all of the symptoms of a crisis as out-

lined by Stern –threat to values, time constraint and uncertainty.

17

A crisis is

also an activity that is highly politicised in some circumstances, such as during

periods of armed conflict.

18

Periods of crisis also involve the possibility of deal-

ing with contradictory values and poor sets of choices that involve real or per-

ceived trade-offs.

19

For example, advocates of military intervention sometimes

argue for the need to intervene before the conflict becomes too costly for citi-

zens of the affected country. British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hague spoke of

the need to arm the Syrian ‘opposition’, if the situation worsened (Guardian,3

March 2013).

If a war is to be fought, there needs to be some measure of perceived legiti-

macy and demand for it. It needs to be understood as being something that is

necessary and just, and as a last resort (ie there is no alternative). Under such

circumstances the uses of not only images but also narratives are the key to

how an audience receives and perceives the event.

20

This has the effect of creat-

ing a moral fog of war, in order to be able to justify an action that would be

deemed unjustifiable under normal (non-crisis) circumstances: ‘Military support-

ers often conflate political and moral discourse, under the assumption that war is

a form of community self-defence, and the nation’s survival supersedes all other

considerations’.

21

Therefore the expression of ranked values plays an important part in shaping

the moral narrative for (or against) a particular war.

22

For example, the protec-

tion of the highest value of the sanctity of human life at the barrel of a gun may

seem to be contradictory when subjecting the logic to critical analysis (rather

than from the lens of an emotional logic). These arguments need to be under-

stood and accepted by the target audience of the messages. This does not mean,

however, that all wars are equal in terms of the attention and the ‘popularity’

that they draw. A war that is promoted in a ‘better’manner in terms of its

intangible assets (legitimacy) is more likely to receive a greater level of political

584 G. Simons

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support and commitment.

23

This makes the public relations and marketing of

the proposed intervention or war a critical aspect.

24

An actual or potential war

that possesses the attributes of high casualty rates as well as links to national

politics and interests (of the potential intervening parties) is likely to gain trac-

tion in terms of concrete policy and response on the issue.

25

A central point that emerges from this section is that a ‘crisis’is not necessar-

ily an objective and concrete state of affairs, but is subject to interpretation and

perception. Therefore, there is an opportunity for those with the necessary skills

and ability to influence this perception of a particular crisis through the interpre-

tation of carefully selected and presented information. This can be achieved

through subjective and vested opinion being presented and masqueraded as

‘objective’fact. As such any attempt to project an event as a crisis will probably

place great emphasis on the simultaneous constituent elements that are used to

confirm its existence –threat to values (normally of a humanitarian nature), issue

of uncertainty, and the problem of time constraint. The humanitarian aspect is

offered to give a sense of legitimacy and lack of vested interest, as people are

more likely to be moved to action via ‘good’emotional values than by the articu-

lation of concrete political interests. The emphasis within the sphere of crisis

communication is to manage meaning, rather than managing information.

Seeking influence and shaping perception

The basic framework for making organisational decisions is often seen as based

upon the premise that organisations make implicit and explicit decisions on

seeking and using information that may improve predictions on future prefer-

ences and consequences. Those decisions are ‘presumed to be based on esti-

mates of the expected benefits and costs of particular information, information

strategies, or information structures’.

26

As such, ‘knowledge the organisation

possesses is the most salient source of sustainable competitive advantages’.

27

Shaping the information environment can reap rewards for actors in terms of

the persuasion and the influence of their ideas. Knowledge transfer not only

deals with the learning aspects, but also the issue of actively searching for

knowledge.

28

It may also lead to the creation of new and previously unknown

knowledge. ‘Knowledge management deals with the ways in which the various

exchange processes can be controlled’, which ‘includes the different ways in

which various types of knowledge are transferred between individuals and

between organisations, and how one form of knowledge is converted into

another form’.

29

An example in relation to the role of knowledge in organisa-

tional learning, where the transfer of knowledge contributes to the learning pro-

cess, is the conversion of tacit knowledge based on experience into explicit

knowledge, which is articulated, codified and stored in certain types of media.

However, information is not exact or perfect. This is because the construc-

tion and nature of information are based upon subjective as well as objective

aspects. When one person or organisation seeks to influence the perception and

reaction of another, the proportion of subjective construction is likely to

increase: ‘The last two decades have seen those that practice it place issue man-

agement within the bailiwick of the communications or public relations function.

And it’s proved to be quite a good fit, as long as that function has a role to play

at the strategic level.’

30

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There is therefore a need for influencers not only to communicate, but to

manage the communication in a very specific and symbolic manner. In some

regards the decision-making process can be considered more important than the

outcomes it produces: ‘It is an arena for exercising social values, for displaying

authority, and for exhibiting proper behaviour and attitude with respect to a cen-

tral ideological construct of modern western civilisation: the concept of intelli-

gent choice’,

31

as Feldman and March express it. They further state that the

‘command of information and information sources enhances perceived compe-

tence and inspires confidence’.

32

If an actor is able to position him/herself, and

to create a viable brand of being competent (for a variety of different tangible

and intangible reasons) in a niche within the information sphere, s/he may be

well placed to project a sense of influence more easily.

33

This forces those who seek to influence and persuade in order to shape opin-

ion, perception and reaction to events to adopt certain sets of tactics to maxi-

mise their chances of achieving success:

Policymakers, think tanks, and pressure groups are encouraged to commission

pragmatically oriented research, strengthening the hands of experts whose claims

to be able to conduct and interpret it are widely accepted. But it also supports the

emergence of ‘the instrumental rationalisation of persuasion,’based on the tech-

niques, values, and personnel of (a) advertising, (b) market research, and (c) pub-

lic relations.

34

Thus the basis of persuasion, as seen above, is not ‘forcing’a viewpoint or

course of action upon others; it is to present information in such a manner as to

convince others to freely choose a particular point of view or action. Important

within this context is that persuasion is influenced by moral components –

choosing to engage in morally beneficent actions and choosing to refrain from

morally reprehensible ones, for example.

35

This implies the weighing of moral

judgements based upon symbolism and values.

36

Perloff defines persuasion as ‘a

symbolic process in which communicators try to convince other people to

change their attitudes and behaviours regarding an issue through the transmis-

sion of a message in an atmosphere of free choice’.

37

This implies that persuasion involves five different components: (1) it is a

symbolic process; (2) in which people persuade themselves; (3) which involves

an attempt to influence and (4) the transmission of a message; and (5) which

requires free choice.

38

In terms of impact persuasion can be used for three broad

effects. The first is to shape attitudes and opinions on something. The second is

to reinforce attitudes and opinions in an audience. The third is to change atti-

tudes and opinions.

39

This now needs to be tied back to NGOs and how they

embark upon attempting to persuade (influence) policy makers.

NGOs, among them think-tanks, come in many shapes and forms. They also

fulfil different functions and go about their work of influence and persuasion in

diverse ways and manners. Historically think-tanks can be divided into two cate-

gories: universities without students and non-profit government research contrac-

tors. Although these addressed specific legislation and issues, the focus was on

changing the climate of elite opinion.

40

The division of the character of think-

tanks is important in helping to define their modus operandi.

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In terms of how think-tanks work today, there are different opinions and

ways of viewing the issue. Weidenbaum studied US think-tanks and listed the

following characteristics:

1. Think-tanks are both academics and activists; they are at the crossroads

of politics and academia.

2. Major think-tanks are neither completely conservative nor completely

liberal.

3. Differentiation between think-tanks and universities is substantial –edu-

cation of students versus influencing public policy.

4. Competition among think-tanks is pervasive.

5. Think-tanks make a special contribution to public policy; they provide a

policy forum of knowledgeable and experienced people.

41

There are also signs that such organisations seek to advance certain interests. A

‘new’third model of think-tank has come into being –advocacy tanks. These

combine strong policy, partisan or ideological bias with aggressive salesmanship

in order to influence current policy debates. A case of spin on existing ideas

and their accessibility to policy makers drives their success.

42

According to Abelson, think-tanks have four main characteristics. First, they

are elite organisations; they rely on expertise and close ties to policy makers to

advance political and economic interests of their sponsors. Second, they are one

of many groups in what has become a crowded marketplace of ideas. Third,

they play a modest role in shaping public policy, especially compared with the

power and resources of government; yet, while the role may well be modest, it

is also strategic at times. Fourth, they have different mandates and resources.

43

Additional roles of think-tanks identified by other researchers include: (1) as a

source of policy ideas; (2) as a source and evaluator of policy proposals; (3) as

an evaluator of government programmes; (4) as a source of personnel; and (5)

punditry.

44

Weaver also adds that think-tanks can provide some government pol-

icy with a sense of legitimacy, especially if the organisation is seen as being

‘independent’and its recommendations match existing (but not yet imple-

mented) government policy.

In terms of the International Crisis Group’s place within these classifications

it may be argued that it serves as a non-profit government research contractor,

given that 49% of its 2012 budget was derived from government sources

according to its website, and that it is working toward shaping elite opinion on

identified conflict issues. Looking at Weidenbaum’s classification of think-tanks,

the ICG is definitely not positioning itself on the political scale in terms of con-

servative or liberal, but rather in advocating or legitimising (for governments)

certain policy positions towards conflicts it champions. The fact that the ICG is

working very actively to groom the ‘independent’image of itself hints at this

being one of the levers of legitimacy that is used. Others include the nature of

its products, which are at the crossroads of government and academia. A final

important point is the nature of the personnel, many of whom are derived from

the political, economic and intellectual elite and are therefore already known by

and interacting with policy- and decision makers.

45

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The ICG and the manufacturing of crises

The material in this section is sourced from the various ICG informational prod-

ucts –briefings, reports, conferences, other material produced and distributed

via its website and other means, and op-eds. An analysis will be made of these

products in terms of the format, means or medium of distribution, length of the

material and the nature of the content (in terms of rhetoric used and narrative/

framing). The ICG is positioning itself as a one-stop knowledge channel in the

sphere of policy response to particular (highlighted) armed conflicts by govern-

ments. Through its extensive networks and field operations it is in the business

of converting tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge via its communication

activities. It is the aim of this section to highlight the different means of rhetori-

cal persuasion and influence the ICG uses in its informational products.

The analysed material was selected in order to explore whether the manufac-

turing of ‘crisis’follows the same pattern in different cases, namely through the

notions of threat, urgency and uncertainty, regardless of the country or issue at

hand. Materials are mostly from the period starting from 2010 onwards, which

incorporates periods of intense armed conflict and intense debate on so-called

humanitarian interventions (especially within the context of the Arab Spring).

Reports produced by the ICG form the first type of informational product to

be examined. Reports constitute the largest category in terms of physical bulk of

the organisation’s information products and range in size from some 30 to 50

pages. The examination of seven randomly chosen ICG reports hints at the more

general finding that these reports all follow the same style, that is, the pattern of

the different elements of a crisis: highlighting certain values under threat, detail-

ing various uncertainties and emphasising the element of time constraint.

46

As a start to analysing the ICG material the events of the summer of 2010 in

Kyrgyzstan are considered; these involved ethnic unrest in the south of the

country between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. The violent conflict between the two eth-

nic groups took place between May and June 2010; by late August 2010 the ICG

had produced a 34-page report on the issue.

47

This report utilised and exploited

the different aspects of a crisis, and references to these aspects are found

throughout the report, but are concentrated in the conclusion and recommenda-

tions. Looking specifically at the conclusion in relation to the communicated

threats to values, uncertainties and time constraints, each is taken in turn.

A primary value under threat, as identified by the report, was the Kyrgyz

democracy: ‘A few years ago [ie during the 2005 Colour Revolution that saw

the overthrow of President Akayev], Kyrgyzstan was viewed, not completely

implausibly, as Central Asia’s outpost of democracy and tolerance’.

48

Another

value seen as threatened was national identity –both Uzbek and Kyrgyz: ‘The

violence and pogroms of June 2010 have further deepened the gulf between eth-

nic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks’.

49

A third threat was seen as affecting the territorial

unity of the country, visible in differences between the north and south: ‘The

country is de facto split in two’.

50

The threat to development, life and property

is another value under threat that is emphasised: ‘The forces that were involved

in the well planned and executed attacks on Uzbek mahallas are a threat to Ky-

rgyz democracy and development, not just to ethnic minorities’.

51

Taken

together, these stated threats to central values form the basis for labelling the

events as a major ‘crisis’.

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The second ingredient of the ‘crisis recipe’, the issue of uncertainty, is also

highlighted in the report. As a main component it is emphasised that the central

government is very weak and unable to assert its influence over the regions.

Statements from the Mayor of Osh regarding moving the capital from Bishkek

to Osh reinforce the air of uncertainty concerning the lack of central governmen-

tal control. On page 27 of the report doubts are cast upon the effectiveness of

state institutions, which are presented as a local assessment: ‘The government

itself has doubts about the loyalty of its security forces, and admits that police,

the courts and prosecutors are crippled by top-to-bottom corruption’. Further

projections are laid out on page 28 concerning additional threats, such as the

possible emergence of and domination by narcotics dealers and the potential for

the south of the country to become a safe haven for ‘Islamic radical guerrillas’.

A historic parallel is projected by stating that the reputation of Kyrgyzstan could

be that of the ‘Sick Man of Central Asia’–a parallel to the Ottoman Empire in

the years before the First World War.

Third, time constraint issues are also emphasised in the report, and related to

the necessity to act urgently. The conclusions emphasise the need to quickly

provide adequate housing for those people displaced by the ethnic unrest before

the onset of winter. An urgent need for thorough investigation of the causes and

the actual events of the summer of 2010 is highlighted, which is portrayed as

being a prerequisite for possible reconciliation and peace. Without it, the possi-

bility of violence occurring again is projected: ‘If this problem remains unad-

dressed, it will not take 20 years for another explosion to occur. It could happen

five years from now –or, if the slide towards extreme nationalism continues

unchecked, much sooner than that.’

52

Taken together, threatened values, uncer-

tainty and time constraints create the notion of crisis in the report –a recipe that

the ICG uses throughout its information products.

A more general observation across ICG reports is that their policy recommen-

dations often do not challenge the policy preferences of major international

actors in a region, for instance those pursued by the USA and its allies regard-

ing the selective application of the responsibility to protect (R2P) and military

intervention. The report on Syria, for example, suggests support for the so-called

Syrian political opposition and marginalisation of the jihadist elements, a

demand made by the Western members of the UN Security Council. Others,

such as the Sri Lanka report, urge that diplomatic pressure be applied to the

government in response to various rights abuses (symbolic rather than substan-

tive action). Again, the values promoted are Western-oriented and of a humani-

tarian nature (emphasising democracy, rule of law, human rights, etc).

The next category of informational product to be examined is briefings,

which are typically 15–20 pages in length. Briefings are formatted as being

either policy briefings or update briefings. Seven briefings were viewed for this

article, five policy briefs and three update briefs, analysing their content and

style.

53

The familiar narrative of a weak government in need of specific guid-

ance and support in order to secure and/or consolidate certain human values is

present in all briefings. This is again located within the context of the three dif-

ferent elements of a crisis. Two policy briefs –on the aftermath of the over-

throw of President Morsi in Egypt and on elections in Somalia –are directed at

emerging issues that would not seem currently to possess any set policy. As

Third World Quarterly 589

Downloaded by [Gregory Simons] at 06:09 18 July 2014

Citations (6)

References (69)

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Last Updated: 05 Jul 2022

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