Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Ibrahim Ahmed Yasin
Introduction
In 1997, Mahmoud Ahmed Sherifo, the former Minister of Local Government and later a detained prisoner of conscience, declared at a seminar with Asmara residents that the government is facing a challenge of disarming the Afar civilians, adding that necessary action will be taken against dissidents, if they do not obey the government directives. The Minister’s statement was further aired on Eri-tv( the national Eritrean TV).
Even though it was the first televised threat against the entire population, the regime had instructed years before its military and security apparatus to take punitive measures against those who resist disarmament and later an additional plan was added. The additional plan was to re-demarcate the political boundaries of Eritrea from nine to six provinces. The Afar traditional land, Dankalia, was divided into so-called Southern and Northern Red Sea regions. The outrage of the population against the conversions of those regions into administrative provinces was widely popular as many resisted and fought against regime forces in central Dankalia and Ara’ata sub-regions.
In February 1996, UNDP mission report team that travelled to the northern part of Afar region of Ethiopia reported that thousands had fled Ara’ata sub region of Eritrea due to forcible recruitment for the government’s national service and parallel agenda of disarmament. According to the report, the government troops swept villages, taking arms, livestock and any men or women eligible for national service. Since then, the regime has killed, maimed, arbitrarily arrested civilians, abducted religious and traditional figures, bombarded fishermen in the red sea, forcibly evicted villagers and destroyed livelihoods in the coastal areas solely because of their ethnic background. After years of his regime’s onslaught against innocent civilians, dictator Isaias added insult to the injury of Afar people by leasing the Assab base for the United Arab Emirates for 30 years. The UAE built a port and expanded Airstrip which destroyed the livelihoods of the local people in the vicinity of Assab city. The crimes against fishermen escalated after the UAE forces conducted airstrikes more than seven times at the Red sea against civilians killing dozens, and injuring more than thirty civilians, and destroying their economic sources. The UAE airstrikes that claimed several lives of fishermen were conducted with a consent and a close coordination with the Eritrean government.
The chargé d’affaires of United states Embassy in Asmara, Steve walker, described the regime as a government ‘’dominated by Tigrigna Orthodox Christians ‘’ , whom the system favour to control the entirety of the political, social and security apparatus of the country. The attitude of the Afar people towards the current Eritrean regime is negative not because of the regime’s implicit and explicit use of political cleavages but related with the policies the regime implemented in their area. The Afar has a widespread belief that the ruling party acts as a conquering power who always deem to request an allegiance from them rather than co-nationals who have the same rights as they do. The Asmara cliques have no business understanding the sentiment of the Afar but cares more about their land which is highly important due to its strategic value.
After years of silent cries and relentless struggle against the regime, hope was born for the Red Sea Afar People in terms of shading lights on their plight. In 2015 a groundbreaking report by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in Eritrea was released. The 484 pages report detailed gross human rights violations the regime perpetrated against its own population. The report implicated the regime forces in ethnic cleansing against Afar and Kunama communities. The Afar people have been subjected to extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearance, forcible eviction, ethnic persecution, and land grabbing. The commission confirmed the Eritrean officials have committed crimes against humanity against Afar population since 1991.
The Eritrean opposition and the Afar position
Some observers concluded that Eritrean opposition groups are fragmented, weak and have no common goals to topple the decaying regime in Asmara. The conclusion is not far from the truth. During the last three decades, several opposition groups had been stationed between Sudan and Ethiopia questing to change the regime in every viable way. It was a total failure, and they needed to start from the ground up, recognizing that bringing all the forces together under one umbrella is paramount to change the tide.
Synthesizing Eritrea’s unprecedented political, cultural, and social issues on the well-known dichotomy of Lowlanders vs Highlanders, Muslims Vs Christians will not render a good conclusion to fix the problems Isaias regime created. Hence, the regime is authoritative, the tactics used to control the population could differ from time to time. No amount of engagement will change the chauvinistic behaviour of Isaias and his cronies in Asmara.
The recently arrived movement Brged Nehamudu known also as a ‘’ blue revolution’’ is entirely from one ethnic group and lacks coherence of ideas, diversity and prioritizing issues and had minimal influence on other ethnic groups in diaspora. Some commenters claim that the icons of this movement are deeply influenced by non-Eritreans, and they were part of Tigrean rebel forces aka TDF during the northern Ethiopian war by mobilizing their bases on fundraising, information sharing and participating with pro-Tigray protesters against the federal government of Ethiopia led by Abiy Ahmed. Recently, one of the campaigners of this movement who visited Tigray region, Beyene Gerezgiher, described the movement’s struggle was to see ‘’ stabilized Tigray’ as a priority. This created mistrust within other Eritrean groups to work collaboratively with brged nehamudu.
One of the Afar opposition leaders whom the author of this article contacted regarding this issue commented that they have zero trust toward the group as they supported TPLF during the invasion of the Afar Region in Ethiopia and he believes clarity on several issues is missing to work directly with the group.
Abiy’s Scramble for the Red Sea: A negotiating Ploy or a plan for the war
On 15, October 2023, Prime minister Abiy Ahmed declared in the country’s parliament that securing access to the Red Sea is vital for Ethiopia’s survival. In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared republic of Somaliland. After a tense diplomatic dispute on the MOU, Somalia and Ethiopia reached a deal to end the stalemate after a bitter Somaliland port agreement that the latter signed. It is not clear if Ethiopia has discarded the deal it signed with the breakaway region, Somaliland.
Conversely, the agreement the two countries signed in Ankara resurfaced the old fear of many observers that Abiy was concealing his ultimate objective of trying to take land of the neighbouring Eritrea. Recently, there is ongoing conspicuous military build-up and reinforcement in Afar region of Ethiopia, Bure front, which borders Dankalia Region, Eritrea.
Some suspect the military movement in the border areas is merely a negotiation ploy that Abiy hopes will pressure Isaias Afewerki and his clique to take responsibility by creating a win-win solution or distance the dictator in Asmara from interfering on the internal issues of Ethiopia. Even if this were the case, Abiy’s rhetoric has already awakened the Afar people’s determination to bring change in Eritrea. Even though, some argue to the extent that Abiy would use Afar forces as a bogeyman to terrify Isaia’s regime, others believe he could go to maximum point of forcing the PFDJ led regime in Asmara into relinquishing the policy of creating axis of evil in the Horn of Africa.
However, it is noteworthy to mention that the announcement in October 2023 by PM Abiy shocked all the neighbours, including the dwellers of the Red Sea, the Afar people. His statement by citing historical rights, national prestige and economic necessity and clan relationship were enough for Ethiopia to acquire its own port on the red sea created a shock wave of both denouncement and criticism.
To be clear on the historical facts, Afar has never come under one sultan or King in the last century. In fact, the Afar community possessed a complex social organization based on clan and marital relations and the territory was divided into sultanates and numerous clan confederacies that independently ruled and administered their territories. The latter still exert powerful influence over their lives. There was a rare exertion of dominance of sultans or clan chiefs over territories of other chieftains and the case is relevant to those who live on the shores of the Red Sea coast. The Afar has no historical amnesia when the pertinent issue is related with the Red Sea as they had experience of partition after Eritrea’s hard-won independence. The Red Sea Afar people own approximately 70/% of the Red sea coastal line. Abiy Ahmed’s fixation on Assab city re-ignited the fear of another inevitable scenario of partition of Afar land and its people as it takes no account of the Afar land up to Massawa, including the Dahlak Archipelago.
From onset, Abiy’s assertion regarding common kinship among the Afar is true. This was evident in September 2018 when Abiy and Isaias travelled to Bure front to officially open the border to celebrate their diplomatic thaw. One needs to compare it with a highly emotional scene that was observed in the Zalambasa front in the Tigray Regional State of Ethiopia. One of the elders who participated from the Afar side told an activist in Facebook post that Afar needs no fanfare to pass the border line as the war was not among themselves but was imposed by the two Tigrinya speakers (TPLF and PFDJ) to destroy the livelihood of the community and catch a dream deferred.
The Federal Government should not consider the Afar force as a war making coalition to wipe out the PFDJ from Afar land but as an strategic ally with strong political significance that can protect the interest of the people of the Horn of Africa and guarantee the security of a region that holds strategic maritime importance as a global trade transit which approximately constitutes 10% of all global trades. They are the owners of the land equipped with enough traditional knowledge of the area and hospitable people who dream for a better future.
Nevertheless, romanticising the Red Sea (kayh bahr) while ignoring the plight of the people is a dreadful political miscalculation. The federal government with the support of the regional powers need to take concrete steps to support the people that are living in the refugee camps under severe conditions. There must be a scheme to strengthen the refugee population and keep the momentum of a hope to our people from exodus and disenfranchisement. The hope should not be a piggyback only on the popular mantra of sea access or port ownership for the Ethiopians but on Afar people’s desire to struggle against home grown colonizers and define a vision together for wider regional economic and political integration.
Unity of Afar groups
The Red Sea Afar groups need to work against the clock to build a cohesive military and political force to pursue their struggle for self-determination in Eritrea. Hence, for the groups now in Ethiopia there is a great chance of forming a unified force under one umbrella to mobilize the entire population and gain popular support from every Afar and non-Afar. The groups must realize the military struggle against Isaias’s regime will present a multitude of challenges that will not only pose a military resistance but could have long-term implications for the stability and the prosperity of the region.
The good news , according to credible sources, is that there are ongoing efforts by the Afar elites to bring all the factions together in one table to diffuse the tension by creating a unity forum that will revitalize the spirit of the struggle and bring out the latent potential.
The Afar calls for Solidarity.
Many Afar alluded to seeking Ethiopia’s alliance to support the grand Eritrean opposition coalition to fight the Eritrean regime and revamp the future through a political roadmap that could avoid the Somalia scenario of a failed State. Moreover, it is imperative to call the regional and international bodies to initiate incentives and provide sanctuary by recognizing the pragmatic reality of the people’s desire for regime change in Eritrea. Cognizably, the international community should comprehend that the tide is changing fast, and they need to chokehold the criminal entity by sanctioning and blocking the various financial networks and minimize the influence of the regime in the diaspora. The quintessential example is the Norwegian parliament that supported a proposal on calling the government to take measures to prevent transnational repression.
The Ethiopian government should moderate the governing party officials’ incitement that would divide the Afar and estrange our people further from each other. The Ethiopian elites must take this call as a desire of the Afar people to widen the sphere of influence of the state in the Red Sea which could shape the geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea. Afar are seriously considering that there must be an ally state that will protect them from ethnic cleansing in the area.
Conclusion
Enough Is Enough and Eritreans need to stop portraying the Ethiopian state as an eternal enemy. The current government cannot and should not be considered neither an enemy nor a genuine friend. Eritrean opposition groups can navigate relationships to its advantages by setting a common agenda, making constructive engagements, and equally forming strategic alliances with all neighbours to entangle the regime from all the corners. Consequently, they can create trust with the current government in Addis Ababa and avoid the war and take things into their own hands facing the difficult but attainable task of overthrowing the regime by establishing an Eritrean Armed coalition group that will bring a regime change.
To sum up, peace will only prevail in the region if the brutal dictatorial regime in Asmara is dismantled. Eritrean people need peace, prosperity, and Justice. The international community should closely watch the illegal movements of the regime and support Justice seekers to bring a long-awaited change in Eritrea.
