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The transformation of rebel groups into political parties has captured the attention of scholars of both conflict studies and of party transformation. In this paper we examine the question of rebel party image change by investigating the causes of name changes adopted by a rebel organization as it transforms into a political party after the end of a civil conflict. We develop an analytical framework based upon the extensive literature on party identity change in the West, and apply it to the name changes of rebel parties. Using an original data set of 54 former rebel organizations, we find that factors internal to the organization (such as the degree of inclusivity and the origins of the rebel organization) explain name change more than factors related to the post conflict environment.
: List of Rebel Groups and Name after War ended and before first legislative election
Probability of Major Name Change by Level of Inclusivity (other variables held at their means)
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What Explains Former Rebel Party Name Changes after a Civil Conflict Ends?
External and internal factors and the transition to political competition.
John Ishiyama and Michael Marshall,
University of North Texas
Contact email: [email protected]
John Ishiyama is University Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of
North Texas, and Editor in Chief of the American Political Science Review. He has published
extensively on party politics, ethnic conflict, and democratization in post communist politics
and African politics.
Michael Marshall is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of North Texas.
Abstract:
The transformation of rebel groups into political parties has captured the attention of both
scholars of conflict studies and of party transformation. In this paper we examine the question
of rebel party image change by investigating the causes of name changes adopted by a rebel
organization as it transforms into a political party after the end of a civil conflict. We develop
an analytical framework based upon the extensive literature on party identity change in the
West, and apply it to the name changes of rebel parties. Using an original data set of 54
former rebel organizations, we find that factors internal to the organization (such as the
degree of inclusivity and the origins of the rebel organization) explain name change more so
than factors related to the post conflict environment.
Citation: John Ishiyama and Michael Marshall (2017) “What Explains Former Rebel Party
Name Changes after a Civil Conflict Ends? External and internal factors and the
transition to political competition.” Party Politics Volume: 23 issue: 4, page(s): 364-375.
https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815600913
1
Recently there have been a number of studies that have examined the process by
which former armed rebel organizations have “transformed” after the end of a conflict. Indeed
a good deal of attention has been paid to how formerly armed rebel groups make the
transformation to political parties (hereafter referred to as “rebel parties”), exchanging
“bullets for ballots.” This is because the transformation of armed groups into organizations
that compete for election are seen as way to get members of armed groups to play by the rules
and thus ensure that peace is durable following a civil conflict. Further, by acting as channels
for interest articulation (for presumably disaffected components of the population) this helps
contribute to political stability and perhaps to democracy (Lyons 2011).
Until recently, there has been little work that has sought to integrate the literature on
civil wars with the systematic study of political parties. However, some work has appeared
that has sought to draw from the parties’ literature to explain the transformation of rebel
groups into political parties (Sindre 2014; Ishiyama & Marshall 2012; Ishiyama & Batta
2011). To date, much of the literature has concentrated on whether rebel groups decide to
adapt to, evade, or exit the post war political arena (Manning, 2007; de Zeeuw, 2007;
Deonandan, Close, & Prevost 2007; Sodeberg-Kovacs, 2007) on the organizational
transformation of the rebel organization (Sindre 2014; Ishiyama & Batta 2011), the candidate
recruitment of former rebel parties (Ishiyama and Marshall 2012) or on the electoral
performance of such parties (Ishiyama & Widmeier 2013; Allison, 2010; 2007). There have
also been a number of important qualitative case studies that have added greatly to our
understanding of these transformation processes (Berti 2011; Strange & Potock 2010; Nissen
& Schlichte 2006).
However, what really has not been explored are the changes in the image of armed
rebel organizations as they transform into political parties. Although image can mean many
things, one fundamental aspect of a party’s image is its name, or the face the organization
2
presents to voters in elections subsequent to the end of a conflict. Indeed, the image of the
party is part of its image, along with other features (such as party programs, manifestos, and
party symbols) but these are generally much less visible to a public than the party’s name.
Certainly, there has been a longstanding research agenda on changing party identities
(including the party image) in the literature particularly on Western parties (see e.g.
Klingemann, Volkens, Bara, Budge & McDonald 2006; Budge, Klingemann, Volkens & Bara
2001; Janda, Harmel, Edens & Goff 1995; Budge, Robertson & Hearl, 1987) that has focused
on party manifestos, but whether voters actually follow what is said in a party manifesto
presumes a knowledgeable and literate electorate, which may not always be the case in post
conflict societies. Further, unlike the more fully developed manifestos of parties in the West,
many rebel groups that transform into parties (particularly in Africa) do not present electoral
manifestoes to the electorate and if they do, it is the only one manifesto and not two. Thus
the option of conducting quantitative cross national manifesto analysis, focusing on identity
change, along the lines common to studies of western party identities, is simply not available
for the study of rebel groups transforming into political parties.
1
However the name of the party is readily visible and changes in a party’s name
provide important insights as to whether such organization seek to expand their appeal
beyond the constituencies that supported them during the conflict. In other words, name
changes reflect organizational changes and adaptations made by organizations as they put
down their weapons and engage the political system (Ishiyama & Breuning 2011). To explain
why armed organizations would change the name they present to an electorate (or not) as they
transform into political parties, this paper taps into the rich literature on party image change
and applies it to the examination of the name change of armed organizations as they transform
into political parties after a civil conflict ends.
Citations (16)
References (73)
… Lyons 2015Lyons , 2016Söderberg Kovacs 2008), prospects for enduring peace (e.g. Marshall and Ishiyama 2016) and policy shifts by former rebel parties (Ishiyama and Marshall 2017). …
… First, a number of studies point to the relevance of the party’s wartime origins. It has been suggested that armed groups who emerged as political parties to begin with, or had political wings during the war, should be less compelled to carry out changes to their party image after the war (Ishiyama and Marshall 2017;Manning and Smith 2016). In addition, groups that mobilized support based on a particular regional, ethnic or religious identity or common ideology should be less likely to change the basis for their political appeal in the post-war period, as this would risk alienating the parties’ core constituency (Ishiyama and Marshall 2017: 366-367;Sindre 2016a: 198). …
… Strong external pressure for change may even strengthen the belief of committed followers regarding the need to reaffirm the party’s ideological profile. Former rebel parties face unique challenges in this respect because a change of image risks alienating the very constituency that supported the rebel organization during the war and rendering it politically irrelevant in the post-war period (Ishiyama and Marshall 2017). Civil wars also create longlasting and mutually dependent relationships between commanders and rank-and-file soldiers (Söderström 2016). …
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… Corporations often rebrand in order to respond to both changes in an external market and/or internal factors, or changes in corporate management who seek to explore new market opportunities, set themselves ahead of the competition (Tevi and Otubanjo 2013). Although there has been a good deal of literature on corporate rebranding, scholars studying political party rebranding have noted that it is far more difficult to change party’s brand and image (Kim and Solt 2017;Ishiyama and Marshall 2017;Harmel and Janda 1994). As Marland and Flanagan (2013) note, for instance, that rebranding of the Canadian Conservative Party from the ashes of the 2003 election demonstrated the difficulty of rebranding. …
… Although the predominant view is that parties will only rebrand if they face electoral catastrophe, other scholars have argued that there are internal factors that also cause party image change. For instance Ishiyama and Marshall (2017), when examining former rebel parties as they transform from armed groups to political parties after civil wars, argue that image change is often the result of a political leadership that sees longer term opportunities by refashioning the image of the party (see also Ishiyama 2019). This is not dissimilar to corporate efforts at rebranding, where corporate leaders see opportunities to exploit future markets (Tevi and Otubanjo 2013). …
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… The transformation of rebel groups into political parties is understood as armed rebels turning into peaceful politicians and is most likely to happen in the first election that takes place in a post-war context (Marshall and Ishiyama 2016, p. 4). Such a process is usually accompanied by a change in the name and/or image of the rebels (Ishiyama and Marshall 2015), which is indicative of what this literature calls ‘strategic’ moderation (Whiting 2018a). Rebel-to-party transformation is thus a critical factor for explaining successful transitions from violence to sustainable peace (Söderberg Kovacs and Hatz 2016). …
… However, one important detail in defining such parties is their characterisation as ‘a former rebel group that participates in elections’ (Ishiyama and Marshall 2015, Sindre 2016a, Ishiyama 2019. Emphasising a rebel party’s former rebel group status is a consequence of this literature’s focus on post-conflict contexts rather than contexts where civil wars endure. …
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… Although the paper does not make a claim that the results are simply transposable to other cases, the approach and mechanisms suggested by this study might offer a useful way to start thinking about the more pro-longed effects of war on national politics. This paper goes beyond the rebel groups and their transformation to political parties, immediate party politics following peace agreements, and elite driven coalition bargaining which often form the usual research agenda many scholars focus on in the context of post-conflict societies (Zeeuw 2008;Manning 2007;Basedau and Moroff 2011;Ishiyama and Marshall 2017;Marshall and Ishiyama 2016). The paper operates on a level of everyday reality of MPs and what they say hoping only handful of people is listening years after the war is over. …
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… La participación de la FARC en el Congreso no es un avance menor si se tiene en cuenta que la reintegración política de excombatientes ha sido considerada un elemento clave en la transición de la guerra hacia la paz (Ishiyama y Marshall, 2017). Al respecto, Stephen Stedman, Donald Rothchild y Elizabeth Cousens (2002) encuentran que el fin último asociado a la participación de los grupos armados dentro de los mecanismos democráticos es que encuentre innecesario el recurso a la guerra para la obtención del poder. …
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