【Preface】
My following assertion might be a bit different from standard views of experts in diplomacy and national security including Ministry of Foreign Affairs of People’s Republic of China. However, allow me to dare to present it for the purpose of supplying a various diversified point of view. My ultimate aim is to enhance overall national security of China, Russia, BRICS plus, SCO and the Global South against the US, UK and EU.
【Summary】
China builds northern defense, western defense, eastern defense and southern defense around herself.
Northern defense : a rock-solid solidarity with Russia
Western defense : an expected buffer zone in Europe between NATO and Russia
Eastern defense : pro-China Japan
Southern defense : good relations with India
With maintaining strong defense around herself, China would export more excellent and less expensive AI-incorporated products, thereby dominating global markets, and grow together with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Global South.
【Main Text】
1. Trump approaches Putin
Trump made a phone call to Russian President Putin in the middle of February. The US had a meeting with Russia in Saudi Arabia to discuss not only a peace talk of Ukraine War but various global issues as well.
[Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump]
Russia might be feeling relieved and proud of itself, believing that Russia is being treated by the US as a great power because the US is talking with Russia about not only Ukraine but various global issues. But, it is the US’s old trick to deceive Russia. [1]
Russia tends to make a mistake, believing it can do a “deal” with the West. The US, UK and EU always aim to destroy and conquer Russia. Their making a deal or agreement with Russia is only temporary for the purpose of buying time to pile up weapons and ammunition for the next offensive against Russia.
Russia made a mistake trusting the West and entering Minsk 2 Agreement in 2015, which allowed the US and NATO to buy time to make a plan and pile up weapons and ammunition to wage Ukraine War 7 years later.
[The leaders of Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine at the February 2015 summit in Minsk, Belarus]
According to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Minsk 2 agreement served to buy time to rearm Ukraine. Merkel said that the Minsk agreement had been an attempt to give Ukraine time and that Ukraine had used this time to become stronger. [2]
Looking back upon the history, Stalin’s Soviet Union entered the non-aggression pact with Hitler’s Germany in 1939. The pact was broken when Germany attacked the Soviet Union in 1941, to the surprise of Stalin.
2. Russia should not be deceived again
Russia should not make a mistake again. What is most important for Russia is the rock-solid solidarity with China. When Russia was isolated after annexing Crimea in 2014, it was China that made a contract with Russia to purchase Russia’s oil & gas. During Ukraine War, China has kept maintaining normal trade with Russia despite fierce criticism from the West.
[Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
It is not the US unipolar world anymore. It is now the multipolar world where China united with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Global South competes against the coercing isolated US.
The US comes closer to Russia to facilitate a peace talk only because the US, UK and EU are out of weapons and ammunition to supply to Ukraine. They need to buy time to produce and pile up weapons and ammunition to prepare for the 2nd Ukraine War to be waged after 2028 when another US president of Democrats is elected.
Trump is using rhetoric as if the US had a strong position, but actually the US, UK and EU are in a weak position. If Russia starts strong offensive now to march toward Kiev, Ukraine would not be able to stop it.
Ukraine is in shortage of weapons and ammunitions. EU’s shell-production capacity falls far short of its promises to Ukraine. [3]
The US has supplied so much weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the US is in shortage of its own weapons and ammunition to defend itself.
Currently, the US, UK and EU are vigorously piling up weapons and ammunition to prepare for the 2nd Ukraine War that they would launch when Democrats win back the US presidency in 2028.
For example, German weapon manufacturing giant Rheinmetall is planning to build a major ammunition production facility in Ukraine to start mass ammunition production in 2026. Rheinmetall seeks to build three plants in Ukraine. [4]
The US, UK and EU are determined to repeatedly use Ukraine as a proxy until they destroy and conquer Russia. The ultimate goal of the West is to conquer Russia and attack China from the north.
China is vulnerable to attack from the north. Historically speaking, it was northern races including Mongolian people and Manchu people that oftentimes invaded and conquered China, establishing dynasties in China. Imperial Japan too invaded China from the north, starting with Mukden incident of 1931 and waging Sino-Japanese War of 1937-1945.
Russia should not get satisfied with a temporary peace agreement with Ukraine under Zelensky. Russia needs to remove Zelensky and his neo-Nazi cronies.
One of Russia’s war objectives is to remove Zelensky and neo-Nazi cronies around him. If Russia accepts a peace deal with Ukraine under Zelensky now, the objective of removing Zelensky would never be achieved. Zelensky will remain in the presidency, demanding that Ukraine should be a member of NATO and would start the 2nd Ukraine War after 2028 with more sophisticated weapons and much more abandant ammunition to be piled up in the coming years. Then, Russia might be defeated after 2028.
In order to remove Zelensky and his neo-Nazi cronies from Ukraine once and for all, Russia needs to advance toward Kiev and conquer Kiev to set up a pro-Russia government. Russia can carry out the mission in the name of self-defense under article 51 of the UN Charter because NATO’s eastward expansion was a virtual aggression against Russia.
It is likely that the US would not interfere Russia’s advance to Kiev. The situation has changed completely. Reportedly, Trump said, “Putin doesn’t have to make a deal with Ukraine because if he wanted, he’d get the whole country.“ Trump wants to see Zelensky removed as he was Biden’s puppet. The road to Kiev is open. [5]
A rift between the US and Ukraine has become obvious when Trump called Zelensky a “dictator” and Zelensky said that Trump was in Russia’s disinformation. [6]
Trump’s provocative remarks against Zelensky are of course calculated ones. Trump wants to breach relations with Ukraine to justify the US’s stopping weapon supply to Ukraine. Without US supplied weapons and ammunition, Ukraine is doomed.
[US President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky]
More importantly, seeing the rift between Trump and Zelensky, the morale of Ukraine army will plummet. They would realize that the US is not on their side and that the war is lost.
Lacking weapons, ammunition and morale, Ukraine army’s fighting capability will collapse. Russia can advance rapidly all the way to Kiev to remove Zelensky and his neo-Nazi cronies.
Also, Russia’s advancing toward Kiev would prevent the US from concentrating on China and indirectly contribute to China’s national security too. If a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine under Zelensky, the US would turn to and concentrate their material and human resources on how to destroy China.
Ukraine might hastily hold a presidential election. But, under the martial law and banning opposition media, Zelensky would be elected as a president again. It is not probable to remove Zelensky through an election.
If a peace agreement is made between Russia and Ukraine under Zelensky, UK and France would deploy their troops into Ukraine in the name of peace keeping forces. Whether it is called peace keeping forces or a European “reassurance force”, UK and France’s deploying their troops to Ukraine is NATO’s further eastward expansion and exactly an aggression against Russia. [7]
The political settlement of Ukraine War can be made only after Russia removes the root causes of the conflict. Russia can conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine after eliminating Zelensky and setting up a pro-Russia government in Kiev. Russia would hold Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea.
A broad demilitarized zone would be set up between Russia-annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea and the western part of Ukraine including Kiev.
A new pro-Russia government in Kiev would ensure that the US-Ukraine agreement on rare earth minerals would be implemented as agreed.
China and possibly other countries such as Saudi Arabia would help Ukraine’s reconstruction, thereby helping a new pro-Russia government’s governing to be stable and sustainable.
3. A neutral buffer zone between NATO and Russia
Furthermore, China can work together with EU, BRICS plus, SCO and the Global South to form a broad buffer zone between NATO and Russia to establish lasting peace in Europe.
[China’s FM Wang Yi at the Security Council of the UN]
When Russia succeeds in setting up a pro-Russia government in Kiev, China can propose, possibly together with Hungary and Serbia, that Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Bulgaria should become neutral states to form a buffer zone between NATO and Russia for lasting permanent peace in Europe.
[Hungarian PM Victor Orbán and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
[Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić Vučić and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
[Slovakian PM Robert Fico and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
Also, along the border line between Poland and Belarus, a broad neutral buffer zone can be made.
When Ukraine is lost, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia and Bulgaria will become a frontline against Russia. They don’t want to be attacked by Russia or be used by NATO like Ukraine under Zelensky. Therefore, the best choice for them is to form a neutral buffer zone.
Currently, Trump is advocating that Europe should take more responsibility to defend itself, demanding increase of defense budget and threatening to withdraw a part of US forces from Europe. Reportedly, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is considering drawing down many US forces in Europe as the United States focuses more on the Asia-Pacific region and its border with Mexico. [8]
China can persuade EU, asserting a broad buffer zone would ensure lasting peace in Europe without huge increase of defense budget as the US is retreating from Europe.
[French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping]
It was NATO’s arrogant eastward expansion that brought about Ukraine War. By facilitating the formation of the neutral buffer zone, China can produce NATO’s westward ebb.
4. It is the multipolar world
It is not the US unipolar world anymore. It is now the multipolar world where China united with Russia, EU, Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Global South competes against the coercing isolated US.
Incidentally, based upon more dominating pro-China businesses in Japan, the pro-China Ishiba administration has been established in Japan. As long as a pro-China government is maintained in Japan, the US would not be able to intervene Taiwan contingencies militarily.
[Japanese pro-China PM Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping, November 2024]
Also, China-India relations are improving steadily to counter the coercing intimidating Trump administration. India is a member of BRICS plus and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
[India’s PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, October 2024]
China builds northern defense, western defense, eastern defense and southern defense around herself.
Northern defense : a rock-solid solidarity with Russia
Western defense : an expected buffer zone in Europe between NATO and Russia
Eastern defense : pro-China Japan
Southern defense : good relations with India
With maintaining strong defense around herself, China would export more excellent and less expensive AI-incorporated products, thereby dominating global markets, and grow together with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Global South.
Under the principles of People-First and Common Prosperity, China’s growth together with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Global South leads to the world’s peace and prosperity.
[BRICS plus and partner countries]
[SCO (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) member states, observer states and dialogue partners]
[China’s AI-incorporated products ranging from EVs, robots, drones to household appliances etc are more excellent and less expensive and therefore dominate global markets]
Thank you.
References:
(1) ”Moscow’s media gloats over US-Russia talks”, February 18th 2025, POLITICO
(2) ”Former German Chancellor Merkel admits the Minsk agreement was merely to buy time for Ukraine’s arms build-up”, December 21st 2022, World Socialist Web Site
(3) ”EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises”, July 8th 2024, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
(4) ”Rheinmetall to start Ukraine ammunition production in 2026”, February 15th 2025, BulgarianMilitary.com
(5) ”Trump says Putin ‘doesn’t have to make a deal’ with Ukraine ‘because if he wanted, he’d get the whole country’ ”, February 21st 2025, Anadolu Agency
(6) ”Trump calls Zelensky a ‘dictator’ as rift between two leaders deepens”, February 19th 2025, BBC
(7) ”UK and France eye 30,000 peacekeepers for Ukraine, but U.S. role remains uncertain”, February 23rd 2025, The New Voice of Ukraine
(8) ”Inside the week that upended U.S.-Ukraine relations”, February 19th 2025, NBC News
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect nor represent the policy or position of any government, party, or organization.
