EGYPTIAN PROPOSAL FOR OGADEN NEGOTIATIONS

CAIRO 07861 01 OF 02 101611Z 1. MFA UNDERSECRETARY AHMED OSMAN URGENTLY SUMMONED POLCOUNS MARCH 10 TO DISCUSS EGYPTIAN THINKING IN LIGHT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT SOMALI FORCES TO BE WITHDRAWN FROM OGADEN. OSMAN HAD TALKED TO ETHIOPIAN AMBASSADOR PRIOR TO SEEING POLCOUNS AND WAS IN PROCESS OF ATTEMPTING CONTACT NIGERIAN AMBASSADOR. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 2. OSMAN, WHO ACCOMPANIED BY MFA AFRICA DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR AMB AHMED SIDQI, SAID HE HAD JUST URGED UPON ETHIOPIAN AMBASSADOR NECESSITY FOR EPMG TO MAKE SOME GESTURE IN RESPONSE TO SOMALI DECLARATION. OSMAN SAID HE HAD STRESSED, AS COUNTRY WITH MUCH EXPERIENCE WITH SOVIETS, THAT SOMALI ACTION GAVE ETHIOPIA OPPORTUNITY TO GET OUT FROM UNDER SOVIET CONTROL. IT SHOULD, THEREFORE, MAKE IMMEDIATE CONCILIATORY GESTURE ON ITS OWN, WITHOUT INSTRUCTION FROM SOVIET ADVISORS. 3. OSMAN THEN OUTLINED EGYPTIAN PROPOSAL WHICH, HE NOTED, MIGHT NEED U.S. SUPPORT. FONMIN KAMEL WOULD LATER TODAY BE SENDING MESSAGE TO CHAIRMAN OAU MEDIATION COMMITTEE NIGERIAN FONMIN GARBA, PROPOSING THAT COMMITTEE MEET IMMEDIATELY IN CAIRO FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS TO ASCERTAIN FACTS AND THEN TO MEDIATE BETWEEN SOMALIS AND ETHIOPIANS. OSMAN JUSTIFIED CAIRO AS SITE BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HORN, FACILITIES AND COMMUNICATIONS, AND AVAILABILITY AFRICAN AMBASSADORS TO MEET WITH COMMITTEE. 4. OSMAN’S FURTHER REASON FOR WANTING PRELIMINARY CONCILIATION MEETING IN CAIRO SEEMED TO BE THAT GOE WISHED TO BRING GARBA TO CAIRO TO IMPRESS UPON HIM AND OTHER COMMITTEE MEMBERS NECESSITY OF CUTTING SOVIETS OUT OF OGADEN PEACE MAKING PROCESS. OSMAN OPINED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 CAIRO 07861 01 OF 02 101611Z THAT IF EGYPT HAD COUPLE OF DAYS TO WHIP CONCILIATION COMMITTEE MEMBERS INTO SHAPE ON ISSUE OF SPLITTING ETHIOPIA AWAY FROM SOVIETS THEN, WITH COMBINED EGYPTIAN-NIGERIAN LEADERSHIP MODERATE AFRICAN FORCES MIGHT IN END SUCCEED IN SALVAGING SITUATION IN OGADEN. OSMAN AWARE THAT SOVIETS UNLIKELY FAVOR CAIRO VENUE, BUT CONCLUDED THAT SOVIETS WILL BE POWERLESS TO OPPOSE GENUINE OAU CONCILIATION EFFORTS. WHOLE PURPOSE OF GOE PROPOSAL WAS TO COMPLEMENT U.S. POSITION BY “GETTING THE OAU ON THE RUSSIANS’ BACK.” 5. OSMAN THEN TURNED TO QUESTION OF OBSERVER FORCE TO OVERSEE CEASEFIRE AND SOMALI WITHDRAWAL. ASKED THAT USG QUIETLY BEGIN CONSIDERING WAYS OF ASSISTING DEPLOYMENT OF SUCH A FORCE. GOE REALIZED THAT UN OBSERVER FORCE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE IN VIEW CERTAIN SOVIET VETO BUT OSMAN OPINED THAT, WITH PROPER URGING BY GARBA OR OAU PRESIDENT BONGO, OAU MIGHT BE ABLE TO COME UP WITH SOME TYPE OF TEMPORARY FORCE. GOE AWARE THAT SOVIETS WOULD NOT RELISH IDEA OF OBSERVER FORCE BUT OSMAN STRESSED THAT, DESPITE ALL WATER OVER DAM, GOE HAS GOT TO GIVE MENGISTU CHANCE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HE IN FACT AFRICAN Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 NATIONALIST AND NOT SOVIET PUPPET. 6. OSMAN THEN TURNED TO QUESTION OF POSSIBLE UNSC MEETING. GOE DOES NOT BELIEVE UNSC MEETING AT THIS TIME WOULD ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING CONCRETE, GIVEN INEVITABLE SOVIET VETO, BUT THOUGHT THAT KEEPING PROSPECT OF UNSC SESSION ALIVE MIGHT KEEP SOVIET FEET TO FIRE AND ENCOURAGE THEIR COOPERATION WITH OAU. OSMAN DID NOT BELIEVE SOVIETS WANTED ANY INTERNATIONALIZATION OF OGADEN DISPUTE NOW CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 CAIRO 07861 02 OF 02 101615Z ACTION SS-25 INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 SSO-00 /026 W ——————057833 101617Z /53 O 101600Z MAR 78 FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6546 INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI AMEMBASSY JIDDA AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM AMEMBASSY LAGOS IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY MOGADISCIO IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY SANA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 CAIRO 07861 EXDIS THAT ETHIOPIANS WINNING BUT OPINED THAT SOVIETS WOULD FIND IT HARMFUL TO THEIR DESIGNS IN AFRICA AS A WHOLE TO OPPOSE MEANINGFUL OAU INTERVENTION TO RESOLVE PROBLEM OF OGADEN. 7. COMMENT: MFA EXPERTS CLEARLY ENGAGED IN DAMAGELIMITING OPERATION NOW THAT POLICY OF SUPPORT FOR SOMALIA COLLAPSING. NEVERTHELESS, BELIEVE DEPT WILL FIND GOE DESIRE TO PUT OAU INTO PICTURE COMPATIBLE WITH OUR POLICY. HOWEVER, IT DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW CAIRO CAN BE CONSIDERED NEUTRAL CAPITAL. GOE HOPE THAT ETHIOPIA EAGER TO DECLARE INDEPENDENCE FROM SOVIETS CONTRADICTS STATEMENTS . MADE PREVIOUS DAY TO EMBOFFS BY AMBASSADOR SIDQI WHO . OPINED THAT MENGISTU IS CREATURE OF SOVIETS AND SOVIETS HAVE NO INTENTION OF LEAVING ETHIOPIA IN NEAR FUTURE. SIDQI PREDICTED THAT SOVIETS WERE INTERESTED IN ASSISTING Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 ETHIOPIA IN A PROTRACTED ASSAULT ON ERITREAN REBELS (“THE LONGER THE BETTER”) IN ORDER TO EXTEND OVER SEVERAL YEARS EPMG DEPENDENCE ON MOSCOW. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 CAIRO 07861 02 OF 02 101615Z 8. AS PART OF EFFORT TO PUT SITUATION IN BEST LIGHT, GOE IS LIKELY TO CLAIM CREDIT FOR PERSUADING PRES SIAD TO MAKE HIS STATEMENT ON OGADEN WITHDRAWAL. SIDQI NOTED PREVIOUS DAY THAT FONMIN KAMEL HAD URGED UPON SOMALI FONMIN ABD AL RAHMAN JAMA BARRE DURING DISCUSSIONS MARCH 8 NECESSITY OF MAKING STATEMENT OF INTENT CONCERNING WITHDRAWAL. FROM CAIRO VANTAGE POINT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MILITARY RESULTS ON GROUND PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE. 9. IN VIEW OF UNAVAILABILITY OF NIGERIAN AMBASSADOR AFTERNOON MARCH 10, GOE MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO GET INVITATION TO LAGOS UNTIL FOLLOWING DAY ALTHOUGH EGYPTIANS WERE DISCUSSING AMONG THEMSELVES DISPATCHING CAR FOR NIGERIAN DIRECTLY AFTER POLCOUNS DEPARTURE. OSMAN MADE POINT OF FACT THAT HE HAD NOT DISCUSSED PROPOSAL FOR OAU MEDIATION COMMITTEE MEETING WITH ETHIOPIAN AMBASSADOR. EILTS CONFIDENTIAL NNN Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014