PROJECT FOR DIVERSION OF NILE WATERS TO SAUDI ARABIA

UNCLASSIFIEDCONFIDENTIALLIMITED OFFICIAL USESECRETUNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLYCONFIDENTIAL//NOFORNSECRET//NOFORN

EXDIS – Exclusive Distribution OnlyONLY – Eyes OnlyLIMDIS – Limited Distribution OnlyNODIS – No Distribution (other than to persons indicated)STADIS – State Distribution OnlyCHEROKEE – Limited to senior officialsNOFORN – No Foreign DistributionLOU – Limited Official UseSENSITIVE – BU – Background Use OnlyCONDIS – Controlled DistributionUS – US Government Only

1. WE ARE NOT ABLE ASSESS TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY OF NERSESIAN PROJECT, BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IN ANY EVENT THAT EGYPTIANS WOULD REACT FAVORABLY TO IT. NILE RIVER IS SO MUCH A PART OF EGYPTIAN NATIONAL CONSCIOUSNESS THAT ANY SCHEME FOR DIVERTING EVEN A PART OF IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE OPPOSED, BOTH BY GOE AND BY POULAR OPINION. 2. PRESENT AVAILABILITY OF WATER FROM RIVER EXCEEDS EGYPT’S NEEDS FOR AGRICULTURAL PURPOSES IN AREA (3 TO 5 PERCENT OF COUNTRY’S LAND SURFACE) NOW UNDER CULTIVATION AND NEEDS COULD BE REDUCED BY SWITCH TO SPRINKLER OR DRIP IRRIGATION. HOWEVER, WITH NARROW NILE VALLEY ENCLOSED BY DESERT, POPULAR VIEW IS THAT EGYPT IS COUNTRY LACKING LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 CAIRO 18164 040655Z IN WATER RESOURCES, NOT ONE WITH WATER TO SPARE. GOE, MOREOVER, HAS AMBITIOUS PLANS FOR USING ADDITIONAL WATER IN EXPANSION OF CULTIVATED AREA – THROUGH LAND RECLAMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS SUCH AS NEW VALLEY IN WESTERN DESEET – TO SERVE POPULATION INCREASING BY ONE MILLION PERSONS EACH YEAR. 3. WITH SPECIFIC RESPECT TO SAUDI ARABIA, WE THINK EGYPTIANS WOULD FIND IT DIFFICULT UNDERSTAND WHY COUNTRY WITH WORLD’S GREATEST OIL RESOURCES SHOULD ALSO BE ENDOWED, BY GRACE OF EGYPT, WITH NILE WATER. HOWEVER, GOE IS BEHOLDEN TO SAG FOR FINANCIAL HELP AND IF SCHEME WERE STRONGLY PRESSED BY KING KHALID, FADH OR OTHER SENIOR SAUDI OFFICIALS ON SADAT, LATTER MIGHT RELUCTANTLY HAVE TO ACQUIESCE. HE WOULD NOT DO SO WITHOUT A FIGHT, HOWEVER. EILTS LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNN