SUMMARY
- TB2 Bayraktar drones were effective in early stages but quickly became obsolete in Ukraine.
- Drones were crucial in Ethiopia’s Tigray War, helping Ethiopia regain an upper hand.
- Usage of drones between peer opponents in modern warfare results in vulnerable drones.
Are drones the future of war? The answer to that question is incredibly complicated and the answer is yet to be written. Drones have played a massive role in the Ukraine war. That being said, a portion of the story has already been written, and they are now an important part of war. However, the use of drones is changing rapidly. While the TB2 Bayraktar drone may have played a central role in deciding the outcome of multiple wars before the Ukrainian invasion, after a couple of weeks, it had been rendered obsolete in Ukraine. Now Ukraine is planning to train some 20,000 drone operators but these are very different types of drones.
TB2 Bayraktar: a fleeting Ukrainian wonder
Renowned American military analyst and specialist on the Russian Armed Forces, Michael Kofman remarked on the much-publicized early success of the Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar in Ukraine. In the first days and weeks of the Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine, videos emerged of Ukraine using its TB2 drones to target high-value Russian targets to great effect.
Photo: Армія Інформ l Wikimedia Commons
| TB2 Bayraktar specifications (per Turkish defense forces) | |
|---|---|
| Service ceiling: | 27,000 feet |
| Endurance: | up to 27 hours |
| Cruise-Max speed: | 70-120 knots |
| Payload: | 150 kgs (330 lbs) |
| Weapons: | 4 Laser Guided Smart Munitions |
Kofman points out in the War on the Rocks podcast that, after a couple of weeks, Russia worked through the early chaos of their air defense and shot most of the TB2 drones down. (The Oryx blog lists 24 TB2 Bayraktar drones visually destroyed). Now, TB2 drones have largely disappeared from the battlefield and are considered mostly obsolete. Kofman also remarks on how an ad-hoc group of around 80 Ukrainian drone enthusiasts using WhatsApp helped to save Kyiv using hobbyist drones (showing just how much the drone war has changed).
But before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was the Tigray War. The Ethiopian Civil War (Tigray War) was a significant war fought in Ethiopia between the Tigray Region and the Ethiopian federal government between 3 November 2020 and 3 November 2022, when it petered out. The conflict is very complicated. But in short, the federal army moved into the ethnic autonomous region and took over much of it. But the Tigrayans continued to fight in the mountains and wore the federal troops down and soon drove the federal army out of the region.
In a dramatic turn of events, Tigray forces soon moved out of their region and marched towards the capital, Addis Ababa. But then they were stopped and driven back. News outlets only sparingly reported on the events at the time, and the conflict was promptly forgotten. But what happened?
“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pulled off a stunning reversal in the year-old conflict with the help of armed drones supplied by the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Iran.” – NY Times
Photo: UA Army l Wikimedia Commons
In December 2021, Al Jazeera reported that drones played a pivotal role in the Tigray War. The Ethiopian government, with only a tiny air force of around 22 combat-capable aircraft, was unable to drive the Tigray forces back. According to Al Jazeera, Ethiopia regained the upper hand by not only using Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drones but also Chinese-made and Iranian-made drones.
It was reported that Ethiopia was using Chinese Wing Loong 2 Unarmed UAVs for recon missions. The surveillance provided by the drones enabled Ethiopia to use its air force of around 22 MiG-23 and Su-27 fighter jets (along with 18 Hind attack helicopters) to much greater effect.
There were reports that Ethiopia was using Chinese-made Chengdu Pterodactyl drones operated by the UAE (although this wasn’t proven). Pterodactyls can carry weapons and fly higher than TB2s. They can be used as target designators for short-range ballistic missiles and carry a 1,058-pound warhead.
Additionally, Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s Mujaher-6 drones had been seen in Ethiopia. The Mujaher-6 is limited in range but is able to carry guided Qaim glide bombs that can destroy vehicles. These drones carrying missiles and enhancing the effectiveness of the air force gave the Federal government a major advantage.
Why TB2s Bayraktar worked
But it wasn’t just the Ethiopian Tigray War. Missile-carrying drones were also credited for enabling Turkey to crush the Syrian offensive in the northern Idlib region in 2016, for Azerbaijan to defeat the Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces in 2020, and for repelling the general Haftar-allied forces as they marched across Libya in 2019.
“The impact of the drones was striking — pummeling Tigrayan rebels and their supply convoys” – NY Times
Perhaps the key factor in these conflicts was that the opposing forces (such as the Tigray) could not effectively counter the drones. They were unable to jam them or shoot them down. But the war in Ukraine is a fight between peers using advanced technology. The Russians have extensive air defense and Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. In other words, the TB2s are too slow and too easy to shoot down to survive on the modern battlefield against an opponent with modern air defense capabilities. Without air defense, forces on the ground are sitting ducks. With effective air defense, the drones are sitting ducks.
Photo: president.az l Wikimedia Commons
The drone war that proved successful in Ethiopia is now obsolete in Ukraine. At the same time, the drones the United States is developing and building to complement its sixth-generation NGAD fighter (called the Collaborative Combat Aircraft) and other systems are completely different from what is being seen in Ukraine.
Read the original content below;
https://simpleflying.com/ethiopia-vs-ukraine-why-drones-worked-failed/
